Ho, Ho, Ho-ly Shit…

…are you seriously NOT officially campaigning for Governor yet, Brown!?

or: RIP Poizner Campaign, June 2009-not soon enough

It has been a few weeks since I wrote on the election, which looking back over what I missed, is not a big loss. As per usual the four major candidates are pretty much in a holding pattern with none of them gaining or losing much ground, as a recent poll shows. There is only so much stock I can put in public polls taken of only 2,004 Californians, but that sampling size isn’t so bothersome when it is measured against other polls that have one glaring similarity, no one gives a shit yet. As of right now more people don’t know, or don’t care enough about the candidates to have an opinion. With possibly the most pivotal election in state history on the line, it seems that the holiday spirit has, until now, sucked anyone’s interest in milling through the pile of information that is there for the reading on every single candidate, choosing instead to fist fight soccer moms for holiday gifts.

2010 is a crucial year for both parties on a national level. Both parties are worried about the upcoming election, the republicans are so worried that they designed their ‘purity test’ to weed out and cut all ties to moderates in trying to appeal to their conservative audience. The democrats should be mighty worried in the house and senate as their recent policy activity and their presidency has had what one might call ‘a rough year’. With so much on the line in every office that means something, it seems that the public-at-large is more interested in Tiger Woods’ adultery and endorsements than who might be leading this country for the foreseeable future. With so much on the line it seems ridiculous that American voters aren’t informing themselves on the local elections and the measures that might be up for a vote so far in advance, so as to arm themselves against the propaganda that flies as the time for a vote draws near.

My biggest concerns reside with Jerry Brown as he has yet to officially announce his candidacy for Governor of California. Meg Whitman has spent major cash to garner the numbers she has got in the recent polls, and she is creeping up on old Brown. If that wasn’t enough, Poizner, God bless his heart, announced that he will FINALLY drop about $15 million of his fortune in to his campaign, though this is coming as too little too late for the far-third running GOP candidate. With his two major opponents ramping up with major cash Brown still feels like a southern gentleman sipping a mint Julep on the bench swing of his fine plantation, paying no mind to the banjo hillbilly music and musket fire baring down the road straight for him. Brown is perfectly content to stroke his mustache and dab the sweat from his brow with a handkerchief he tucks neatly in to the breast pocket of his Hudsucker suit on such a balmy afternoon. The fucking Rednecks are arming up, it’s time to declare war, you soft headed Kentucky colonel!

When Brown first announced that he was forming an ‘exploratory committee’ to look in to running for Governor, back when Newsom was still scampering about like a wild eyed idealist, I thought it was very savvy. Slow and steady wins the race, so let the little tike tucker himself out and then hide away in the biosphere of San Francisco to figure out what went wrong. It is only then, after Newsom was gone that I thought Brown would rise and bellow from the mountain top that he was the once and future king of California, and he would be the man to lead us in a better direction. As of yet, Brown has piled on the fundraising for the campaign coffer, so when there is a campaign he will be plenty funded to face off against the independently wealthy dillusionals that think somehow if you can run a company you can run a state…still looking for THAT logical connection.

Brown is now looking to be a little senile as his GOP opponent Meg Whitman has started to buy the very votes and recognition she needs to compete with old man river. She has spent millions hiring the best campaign team she can and has blasted the airwaves with terrible ad after ad of misinformation and non-descript rhetoric to start to get in to the homes and the back of the minds of the voting public. Brown’s ‘wait-and-see’ approach is now starting to cost him the inherent lead he had, his handicapped score, over the opposition, which was fine when they were no one and he was going to go official soon, but now it seems he has waited too long. It would be ill-advised to announce this soon before Christmas, and he would get lost in the commotion of the holidays before the New Year, so it seems that his best bet is to officially announce his candidacy and go on the offensive towards the end of the first week in January, another three weeks away!

I cannot understand what he is waiting for. Thus far Tom Campbell is now up to 20%, second to 34% of Whitman, which is a gain over the last poll, closing in on Brown leading everyone with 42% support. Now, I will admit that yes, in any hypothetical scenario Brown can beat the pants off everyone, but he is trailing dearly under age 35 with little to no recognition of him, which is where a campaign would come in handy so he could reach the younger likely voter! If the old bastard would make some serious appearances and go on the campaign trail, like everyone else in this race, then I think he would have stronger numbers than he already does. Instead he sits up in his ivory tower, doing God knows what, while the GOP natives are building ladders to snatch him by the hair and toss his ass in to second place in the polls. Whitman is foaming at the mouth for support and as far as I can tell Brown is actually dozing off on the political sofa watching Conan.

The climate right now is perfect for Brown to swoop in and take this state, it could not be better. With a major crisis in place, put there by government spending and a celebrity republican who has grown more moderate by the year, his record of service and fiscally responsible ideas in addition to his championed fight for businesses and groups against fraudulent and illicit corruption, you might as well put an “S” on his chest for what he could do with California. I know that there is a resistance to career politicians right now, a recycling of politicians as it were, but Brown has every scenario he needs to win, including fat cat millionaires with little to no experience, and associations with lacking voting records and mired in conflicting policies and actions; he’s up against a very wealthy version of tweedle-Dee and tweedle-Dum…and Tom Campbell.

Whatever his reasons for not jumping in, his strategy once he is in the race is clear, he needs to reach those under 35 who do not know the California he ran. Brown needs to appeal to a similar base that Obama appealed to. I know, those people are now kinda feeling unceremoniously penetrated without the courtesy a reach around, but what works in his favor is that this state brims with those that want change from the path we are on, and the antithesis to what Schwarzenegger was is what Brown can be. Brown can be charming, disarming, and can speak in a way that can move people to action. No one in the running now can hold a candle to the record of service Jerry Brown has had for the ‘people’ throughout his career in this state. Brown is synonymous with California and success as well as defending and working for people, not companies and corporations, which is sadly who gets the help and makes the decisions in America these days, and the very entities Poizner and Whitman are famous for making. If Brown can reach the younger voter and drive home the point that he has been there, done that, and can do it again, derailing this bullet train to “Fuckedtown”, then he will be fine, but first he has to be on the ballot!

On another note I would like to say a fond farewell to Steve Poizner on this campaign in 2009. Steve has filled me with laughter as much as shock and anger, and it would not have been a fun ride without him. Despite his $15 million he is dropping on his campaign he is currently riding a very pitiful pony in third place with 9% approval rating, far behind the thoroughbred double digit geldings that Whitman and Campbell are riding. I foresee him dropping out of the race in the next few months. It is simply not his year with Whitman being such a formidable millionaire to campaign against. There is only really room for one rich, white person with no experience in each race for public office, and that person is Meg Whitman. Poizner, with his goofy look and inventing GPS shit and computer stuff cannot hold a GE lightbulb to Whitman’s appeal and ebay prowess. Between these two, Whitman has the recognition of success and the vague, ambiguous policy rhetoric designed and manufactured by a crack team of blood thirsty shysters, and old Poizner hasn’t a chance as “insurance Commissioner”, which no one gives a shit about.

Poizner’s days are numbered being that, with six months to go, the best he can do is volunteer teach at some po-dunk school or sit with 6 people in a room and call it a ‘small-business council meeting’ while Whitman rubs elbows with McCain and waxes nostalgic on insider trading deals with Mitt Romney. The poor bastard has no clout, a shitty record of contradicting himself, and worst of all no pizzazz or flash. Whitman is visibly more approachable, warm, and is a better public speaker. Whitman is like a terminator T-1000 model, designed and programmed for one purpose by the Cyberdine Cybernetic campaign team she has assembled to mobilize Skynet and destroy Steve Poizner. He has not quit yet, but I would not be surprised if he is out before March. He has no business getting in to a public debate at single digit poll numbers with the likes of Whitman, Campbell, and Brown; imagine Beatrix in the wedding scene from Kill Bill, but with a town hall format.

Whitman probably feels pretty good right now seeing the numbers she has, but I can imagine her surprise to see Campbell, with almost no resources, trailing her moderately closely this late in 2009. I am sure she felt that she could be 20 points ahead come December, but Campbell has been killing it with great platforms, sick deficit balance proposals that even I like, getting him on a debate stage with her would rocket his numbers. This is what Campbell needs to hold on and hope for, he just needs to stay within 15 points on Whitman until March, and once Poizner is out and GOP debates come in to play, he can crush her on the public forum. I can see the headlines “Campbell Crushes in Debate; Whitman stunned.” If I were a Republican I would be voting to Campbell, the guy has his shit together and his fundraising is going a little better so I feel a chance for the guy up to the primaries if he can get his name out there and get some of the seriously undecided/uninterested voters on his side.

I don’t have any stats to back this up, but I have a theory about the general voting public and their voting decision making; Party, Pandering, and Pussy. First off people in general election often vote along the party lines, this is where you have your liberal and conservative bases that will vote along the party lines every time without fail. This is who they identify with and often these are the ‘registered’ reps and dems. after this base you have the moderates and middle of the road guys, who vote for the person that panders to their needs and desires of the moment. Whatever the candidate can do to fondle the cockles of this groups heart, they will do just to get the vote and support. This fringe group living in political purgatory is gold for a majority vote and is where all ads and campaign promises and policies are aimed at, so with enough pandering a candidate can get them. After this you have the scatter-brained, who just don’t know or don’t pay enough attention and just vote on here-say and gut; they vote for the one they least think is a pussy. This odd amalgam of people follow a simple set of rules, they want a Governor that can kick your Governor’s ass, so to speak. Not saying they aren’t informed, but they don’t really care about pandering and don’t have enough of an opinion to be swayed by policy, they just look at a guy, read a headline and look for the most badass quote, “Hey, that guy is no pussy”, sold.

Whatever the voter’s outlook, the campaigning for 2009 is over. It would take a monumental announcement or headline to grab attention away from shopping and egg nog, not to mention ringing in the New Year with loved ones. So for now I think our candidates are circling Newark airport due to heavy fog until January 2010, which is going to be a fire storm of a month with new cash flowing in to every candidate’s campaign coffer at one level or another. The guns will be drawn, Brown will finally throw his hat in the ring and will hit the ground running as the GOP loads up cash cannons and fires them in every direction just for attention. The debates will be three way, one GOP candidate is leaving the fold to save face and lick their wounds, I’m looking at you Poizner, and Brown will have successfully waited out two candidates which will make him seem so wise. This has been a hell of a race so far and I am looking forward to more campaign blunders, misinformation, a complete disregard for decency, and an undermining of everything these candidates are trying to achieve. I might get another one of these campaign pieces in before the end of the year, but if I don’t I want you to remember: Poizner is a tool, Campbell is a dark horse, Jerry Brown might be Yoda, and of course Whitman came back in time to kill John Conner…seriously.

One thought on “Ho, Ho, Ho-ly Shit…

  1. Dude, don’t panic. The polling was done the week before the Craigslist-Ebay trial, with all its maudlin corporate skulduggery in full view of the press.

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